Traditional Markets Weekly — September 25, 2026
Executive Summary
For September 18–25, the S&P 500 ended up 1.21% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.25%. Gold fell 2.34% and the DXY rose 0.75% as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 19 basis points; the move reflected firmer expectations for higher rates after the Fed decision and persistent energy-related inflation risks. Oil traded around headlines about the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East tensions. The VIX closed at 14.87, pointing to low equity volatility even as the bond market faced significant stress.
Market Overview
| Asset / indicator | Weekly change or Sep 25 level |
|---|---|
| Gold (GC=F) | -2.34% |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | -2.95% |
| S&P 500 | +1.21% |
| Nasdaq 100 | +3.25% |
| DXY | +0.75% |
| 10-year Treasury | +19 basis points |
| VIX | 14.87 |
| WTI (CL=F) | Comparable weekly change unavailable |
Weekly changes are calculated by BlockHorizon’s fetcher from daily closes for gold (GC=F), S&P 500 (^GSPC), DXY (DX-Y.NYB), and Treasuries (^TNX), comparing the last six available closes in the window; silver uses the Sep 18 and 25 closes for XAG/USD. VIX is the Sep 27 reading corresponding to the latest market close (^VIX history). Reuters reported a 3.25% five-session gain for the Nasdaq 100 on Sep 25. The 10-year yield reached 5.22% intraday (CME Group); Reuters reported it near 5.17% on Friday (Reuters). A comparable weekly WTI return was not retrieved, so none is estimated.
Ver dados em tabela
| asset | change |
|---|---|
| Gold | -2.34 |
| S&P 500 | 1.21 |
| DXY | 0.75 |
Key Events This Week
- Treasury yields pressured rate-sensitive assets. The 10-year yield rose about 19 basis points over the window, reached 5.22% intraday, and finished Friday near 5.17%. Higher yields increased gold’s opportunity cost and supported the dollar.
- The Fed kept the risk of further hikes in focus. After a 25-basis-point increase on Sep 16, officials emphasized persistent inflation; Reuters coverage on Friday reported rising market pricing for additional hikes in October and December.
- Equities recovered through the volatility. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finished the window higher, with technology and AI shares helping risk appetite despite a rise in long-term yields.
- Precious metals retreated. Gold fell 2.34% and silver 2.95% between the Sep 18 and 25 closes. A stronger dollar and higher real yields reduced gold’s relative appeal. Lower prices attracted some physical buying in India ahead of the festive season, Reuters reported.
- Oil remained tied to geopolitical risk. Headlines about talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased prices early in the week; attacks and conflict statements revived supply concerns toward week’s end.
- Equity volatility stayed muted. A 14.87 VIX points to relative complacency in equities, but it does not capture the scale of the long-end Treasury move.
News Highlights by Theme
Rates, dollar, and indexes
- Global stocks weather bond volatility as oil eases — Reuters/Fidelity, Sep 25.
- Wall Street stocks rally as oil prices and yields ease — AP, Sep 21.
- Dollar set for weekly gains as Treasury yields surge and Fed bets build — Reuters/MarketScreener, Sep 25.
Metals
- Gold heads for a weekly loss as rate-hike expectations build — Reuters/MarketScreener, Sep 25.
Energy and geopolitics
- WTI whipsaws as Hormuz hopes collide with a diesel crunch — OilPrice.com, Sep 25.
- Why WTI is suddenly trading at a $12 discount to Brent — OilPrice.com, Sep 25.
Macro Backdrop
The backdrop combined tighter monetary policy, persistent inflation, and potential energy supply shocks. On Sep 16, the Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% (FOMC statement). During this week, Reuters coverage on Sep 25 reported markets were pricing in a greater chance of further hikes as energy prices and inflation signals stayed firm. The dollar and yields rose, weighing on gold, while technology shares and expectations of looser oil supply helped equities recover. The gap between a low VIX and substantial bond volatility shows that risk was uneven across asset classes.
Positioning and ETF Flows
We did not retrieve comparable weekly flow series for GLD, SLV, SPY, QQQ, and USO. We also could not retrieve consistent weekly COT positioning with a common reference date across all markets. These measures remain unavailable in this edition; we do not infer positioning from price action.
What to Watch Next Week
- Sep 29: BLS JOLTS report for August at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- Oct 1: U.S. ISM Manufacturing and weekly oil data; watch whether activity and inventories shift the inflation and demand outlook.
- Oct 2: BLS Employment Situation report for September at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Track any new Strait of Hormuz talks or shipping disruptions, which could affect crude, the dollar, inflation expectations, and yields.
Methodology and Disclaimer
Editorial window: Sep 18–25, 2026. Gold, S&P 500, DXY, and Treasury changes use the internal fetcher’s last six available closes; VIX is the latest available reading on Sep 27. The fetchers ran through Sunday, but Sep 26–27 news was excluded. A comparable WTI return, ETF flows, and COT series were not retrieved and are not estimated. This publication is for informational purposes and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.